January 2023 was another month in which there were more applications for the suspension and termination of business activities than those established and resumed. The InfoCredit index, which describes this relationship, has been in the red for 7 months. This means that there are no more active economic activities. On the contrary, it is dying.

The past month is slightly better than January 2022. In the first month of this year, 40,308 activities were started and resumed, 62,086 were completed and closed. Thus, our index reached the value of -21,778 points. In January 2022, 35,520 activities were started and resumed, and 65,386 were completed and closed. Our index was then worth -29,866 points after a slight increase since December 2021 (then -35,716 points, the lowest level in history, even lower than after March 2020, when the epidemic broke out. This was the result of confusion and fears related to the tax reform as part of the Polish Deal. Micro-entrepreneurs decided that the changes were not beneficial for them and began to withdraw en masse from the form of doing business in the form of activity. Now, at the turn of 2022 and 2023, it can be assumed that this is the result of the rising costs of the simplest form of doing business.

Seasonality is visible in the quotations of our index. This means that the indicator always drops at the turn of the year, because we note an increase in business suspensions. However, this phenomenon has been gaining momentum in recent years. Similar fluctuations of the index on a monthly basis (although smaller) are observed before and after the holidays. In May and June, entrepreneurs who run their business seasonally suspend their activity, only to suspend it again after the holiday season. On the other hand, those who want to use holidays suspend their activities so as not to incur unnecessary costs.

InfoCredit business activity index

Our Business Index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more activities have been established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is in the red, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily).


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