INFOCREDIT BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX

In the first quarter of 2023, again - for the third time in a row - there were more applications for termination and suspension of business activities in Poland than for establishment and resumption. The InfoCredit index, describing this relationship, is therefore still in the red - both quarterly and monthly. It is somewhat comforting that the index has moved away from the bottom of 2022 and 2021. The situation is improving slightly month by month.

In the first three months of 2023, 119,847 business activities were established and resumed, 147,601,000 were completed and resumed. Thus, the index was worth -27,754 points quarterly. This is much better than in Q4 2022 (-41,060 points) and better than in Q1 2022 (-44,087). January 2023 was still quite weak (the index was worth -17,202 points after the first month), but the following months brought a rebound. In February, there were 6,234 more closed and suspended activities than new and resumed ones, and in March only 925 more. Does this mean we'll be in the black soon? The trend is upward.

April, May and June are seasonally favorable for setting up and resuming business activities. That was last year and the previous ones. The exception was April 2020, but it was only the second month of restrictions due to the pandemic. This year, everything indicates that we will now come out on top. There are 6,284 more established and resumed activities in April than closed and suspended ones (as of April 18).

Seasonality in CEIDG data is very visible. Typically, in the 1st and 4th quarter there was a retreat from activity, the 2nd and 3rd quarter of the year balanced these outflows and even brought a surplus. In recent years, however, a very disturbing phenomenon of the crisis of the simplest form of running a business has been observed. Economic activities gradually decreased. Let us remind you - already 2021 was disturbing in this respect. In 2022, a total of 347.3 thousand were suspended. activity, which was a record. 193.2 thous. activity - the highest since 2014. The main reason was unstable tax regulations and rising operating costs. How will it be this year? For now, we can talk about a slight rebound. We will be able to say more after Q2 and Q3 this year.

InfoCredit business activity index

Our Business Index shows the ratio of new and resumed businesses to closed and suspended businesses. When the index is positive, it means that more activities have been established and suspended than were suspended and closed. The higher the index value, the greater the propensity to open small businesses. When the index indicates values below zero, it means a retreat from this form of economic activity. The more the index is in the red, the more small entrepreneurs withdraw from business (definitely or temporarily). We publish the index on a quarterly basis (after each quarter) and on a monthly basis.

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