InfoCredit Micro Enterprises Index
• After several months of stagnation, the number of new businesses in March 2021 increased to 26 229 from 21 285 in February (23 835 in January this year). In March 2020, 18 291 of them were recorded - according to the data provided to CEIDG.
• The entire first quarter of 2021 in economic activity - thanks to a fairly good March - also looks promising. There were more new activities than last year. We also recorded significantly fewer suspensions (61 281 in Q1 2021 compared to 94 861 a year earlier).
• The InfoCredit microenterprise indices rose sharply after March. The ratio describing the relation of new to closed operations increased to +10 171 points from +7 678, and the relation of reneweds to the suspended increased to -6133 points from -8197 points.
The last month of the first quarter of 2021 has significantly changed the picture of micro-entrepreneurship that has been developing since last autumn. Poles were more willing to set up new businesses, and there were many more renewals on a month-to-month (m / m) and year-on-year (y / y) basis. The suspensions remained unchanged m / m and, counting y / y, they dropped significantly. What does it mean?
- The March data is quite optimistic, but it is difficult to talk about a change of the trend, taking into account the circumstances, i.e. the third wave of the epidemic. On the one hand, small businesses are sure to gradually adapt to the new reality. I do not want to say that she will become commonplace. Entrepreneurs are increasingly realizing that it will not be like it was before COVID and they are more and more willing to make strategic decisions. On the other hand - you can still see caution. That is why in March we have not yet recorded great changes in the plus, although it must be emphasized that there has not been a suspension of panic like last year for 11 months - says Jerzy Wonka, development director at InfoCredit.
Let us recall - last year, the end of Q1 brought a wave of business suspensions due to the first restrictions and growing uncertainty. In March 2020 alone, 48 624 activities were suspended, and 28 432 in the last 10 days only. Meanwhile, throughout March 2021, we recorded 18 652 suspensions.
- It is also comforting that in the entire first quarter we recorded 71 349 new activities compared to 69 517 a year earlier. The number of closings and renewals is comparable. There are significantly fewer suspensions than in the previous year. And this is not the effect of crowding full-time employees into economic activity, taking into account the recent preliminary labor market data. The unemployment rate in March was 6.4%. and was slightly lower than in February. However, we will be able to get a full picture of what is happening in microenterprises after the second quarter of 2021, when the data will be relatively comparable. We will be able to compare the entire 3 months of the 2021 epidemic with the entire 3 months of the 2020 epidemic - adds Jerzy Wonka.
How do we count the InfoCredit Index?
The InfoCredit indicator was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is compiled by the oldest economic analysis company in Poland, takes a positive value when there are more new activities than closings. When there is less than finished - negative. In the same way, we follow the relation of resumes to suspended activities.