InfoCredit Micro Enterprises Index
• In the second quarter of 2021, there was a revival in economic activity. Poles established more small businesses than in the first quarter of 2021 and in the second quarter of 2020. There were also more renewals, fewer closings - according to CEIDG data.
• In the entire first half of 2021, much more applications were submitted to CEIDG than in the previous year. 150.8 thousand new activities compared to 124.2 thous. in the first two quarters of 2020.
• The InfoCredit micro enterprise indices after the first half of the year are still close to their highest values this year. The ratio describing the relation of new to closed operations after the first half of the year was worth +12 378 points (compared to +15 077 points after May 2021 and +15 492 after June 2020), and the ratio describing the relation of reneweds to suspended ones was worth -4443 points (+173 points). after May 2021 and to +11 929 after June 2020).
Along with the economic recovery, easing restrictions and a decrease in COVID-19 incidence, the situation in small business continues to improve. The second quarter of 2021 brought a recovery in economic activity and a return to the situation that we observed before the epidemic (i.e. in the second quarter of 2019). April, May and June of this year is difficult to compare with the same period of 2020. The past quarter for small business was completely different than the second quarter of 2020.
- Before a year of operating in the epidemic, we were just learning. The easing of the restrictions took place just before the holiday season. This year, small businesses had a chance to slowly get ready for the season starting in April. Many small businesses that suspended operations in March 2020 did not suspend their operations until the end of June. This year, the seasonal suspension of operations was spread over several months and took place gradually just after the third wave of the epidemic - says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit's development director.
In the second quarter of 2021, 79.5 thousand were established, business activities were established, 39.4 thousand were closed, 47.1 thousand were resumed, and 54.3 thousand were suspended. In the same period of last year, 54.7 thousand were established, 47.4 thousand were closed, 31.1 thousand were resumed and 61.3 thousand were suspended.
The situation is similar throughout the first half of 2021. 150.8 thousand jobs were assumed. operations (124.2 thousand in the first half of 2020), 86.8 thousand closed (against 70.2 thous.), 78.2 thous. (against 99 thousand), and 115.5 thousand were suspended. (against 142.9 thous.).
The InfoCredit index, describing the ratio of new to closed economic activities, rose to the highest value this year already in May (+15,077), also remaining quite high after June (+12,378 points). The index describing the relation of renewals to suspensions in May went up to 179 points (which does not happen often, usually remains negative for years), and after June it fell to -4443 points. - This is not a disturbing phenomenon. Usually, before the holidays, at the end of June, entrepreneurs and specialists who want to take advantage of the holidays and at the same time reduce the burdens associated with running a business, seasonally suspend their activities - adds Jerzy Wonka.
What can we expect in the coming months? - The economic situation in industry is great, wages are rising, the situation on the labor market is also quite good. This should favor small businesses that cooperate with large ones and specialists who settle accounts with their clients by running their businesses. On the other hand, we do not know how quickly we will have to deal with the fourth wave of cases. And with what restrictions we will have to deal. Because the fact that another wave will occur is obvious with the current slowdown in vaccination, adds InfoCredit's development director.
How do we count the InfoCredit Index?
The InfoCredit indicator was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market and individual industries is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest economic analysis company in Poland, takes a positive value when there are more new activities than closings. When there is less than finished - negative. In the same way, we also track the relationship of resumes to suspended activities.
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