InfoCredit Micro Enterprises Index
In 2020, fewer activities were added than in the previous year
• Throughout 2020, 262.9 thous. business activities, 146.2 thous. 163.3 thousand were renewed. and suspended 250.1. For comparison - in the same period last year it was 309.9 thous. (new), 173.3 (closed), 160.3 (renewed) and 306.9 thous. (suspended) - according to CEDIG data.
• In December last year, 1,306 more economic activities were established than completed. The InfoCredit index therefore recorded a significant decline, but its value remained positive (in November 2020 it was + 7263 points). In the last month of 2020, 19.8 thousand. operations, 18.5 thousand were closed
• Those who suspended their activities in December 2020 were again much more than those who resumed. So the InfoCredit index deepened its decline to -21 834 points. It is the lowest since March 2020, when entrepreneurs began to apply for suspension en masse under the influence of uncertainty. However, there was no such anxiety as in March. There was also no attack on the CEIDG system.
The last weeks of December brought no revival in the applications submitted to the CEDG. It is true that as many as 29,905 activities were suspended against 8,071 resumed, but the situation was similar to the end of 2019. Then, 10,312 activities were resumed, and 37,381 were suspended. 27,069 points, which is much lower than after November 2020. Usually, at the end of the year, there are much more suspensions than renewals.
Compared to November, we recorded a significant increase in business closures. In December 2020, there were 18,514 such requests, compared to 11,086 a month earlier. There were almost as many new activities as a month earlier (19,820 compared to 19,493 in November 2020). It is also the effect of seasonality. The end of the year is favorable for suspensions and closings, especially with the uncertainty and tightening seen today.
- The last quarter brought a significant decrease in activity in submitting applications to CEIDG, and this is the only worrying signal from micro-entrepreneurs. It was visible in each of the categories. In the first three quarters of this year, Poles were much more willing to take matters into their own hands. Those who saw their chance started new businesses, and there were definitely much fewer closed ones than new ones. Those who saw no opportunity suspended or closed their activities. Now they are in limbo, waiting for better times - says Jerzy Wonka, development director of the InfoCredit analytical company.
According to Jerzy Wonka, the second wave of the epidemic and the increase in the number of cases in autumn could have influenced the decisions of micro-entrepreneurs. For now, when in many industries the restrictions are maintained and extended, and the revenues are significantly lower, it is difficult to be optimistic and start or suspend operations. Hence - perhaps - a lower number of applications than at the end of 2019.
The second issue is a much better situation on the labor market than it might have seemed six months earlier. The registered unemployment rate in December was 6.2%. - it follows from preliminary data of the Ministry of Development, Labor and Technology. At the beginning of 2020, it was 5.5 percent. The collapse of the economy did not result in a significant increase in unemployment.
- Still many people think that a job in difficult, unstable times is a better idea than starting a business on your own. This is also the reason why many people may have postponed the start of operations in the last quarter of 2020 - adds Jerzy Wonka.
How do we calculate the InfoCredit Index?
The InfoCredit indicator was created to track trends in micro-entrepreneurship, alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, which is developed by the oldest economic analysis company in Poland, takes a positive value when there are more new activities than closings. When there is less than finished - negative. In the same way, we follow the relation of resumes to suspended activities.
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