New activities continue to grow, the indicator close to record values

In July, those who wanted to take matters into their own hands still had a decisive advantage. Both among new entrepreneurs and those who already know the taste of their own business and have suspended it for various reasons. The holiday season has changed little here. 25 640 business activities were registered, 10 088 were closed. 15 182 activities were resumed and 11 370 were suspended - according to CEIDG data.

The InfoCredit microenterprise index, describing the ratio of new operations to closings, reached the value of 15 552 points, remaining close to this year's record and the highest values ​​from 2019 and 2018. The index describing the relationship between renewals and closings fell to 3812 points, but remained clearly positive. It has been above 0 for the third consecutive month, which has not happened since the beginning of 2018. Earlier, in 2019 and 2018, it was only positive twice.

Self-employed means cheaper

The InfoCredit indicator was created to track alternative forms of employment and self-employment at a time when the situation on the labor market is changing dynamically. The index, prepared by the oldest company in Poland analyzing the economy, takes a positive value when there are more new activities than closings. When there is less than finished - negative. In the same way, we follow the relation of resumes to suspended activities.

The data from the last 4 months confirm that the panic we saw among entrepreneurs in March was a one-off event. At that time, 48 624 entrepreneurs suspended their business activities, and 11 680 ended their activities. Only in the last 10 days, 28 432 activities were suspended and 3124 ended. What does this mean? We are definitely gradually adapting to the new reality. Those who were to suspend or terminate their activities due to the epidemic have already done so. Today they gradually come back to it or wait for a better moment. On the other hand, changes in the labor market force people to return to self-employment. An employee or a specialist running his own business is more competitive on the labor market, because it is cheaper from the perspective of the employer.

We are waiting for renewals in the summer

During the holiday season, the number of renewals decreased significantly, which influenced the overall number of applications that passed through the CEIDG system. This one is the lowest this year. In total, the system processed 62 280 entrepreneurs' applications, compared to 72 639 in June. In March this year, which was exceptional due to the surge in suspension growth, as many as 90 028 applications were submitted.

This is due to the fact that some micro-entrepreneurs, mainly those who do not employ employees, suspend their business for holidays just to rest. And since there is no income, they do not want to incur costs either. 15 182 activities were resumed against 25 576 in June and 23 597 in May. However, the InfoCredit index, describing the relationship between renewals and suspended operations, remained positive. There were no significant number of suspensions of activity - there were 11 370 of them against 9582 in June and 11 278 in May. Those who wanted to freeze their microbusiness have already done so before the holidays. And most of all in March, when the economy was freezing. Interestingly, the seasonal decline is not visible among new, closed and suspended activities. 

- This year our index is behaving differently than in the previous years. That's why it's worth following it. The best example is March. In the months that followed, the economy seemed to slowly return to normal. There was a demand for seasonal work. Poles like to take their holidays. What's next? Nobody knows, and it is increasingly difficult to make predictions. On the one hand, the June CSO data on unemployment, average wages and employment in the enterprise sector were better than expected. On the other - in June, it was about 208 thousand. more unemployed from year to year. That's a lot. The number of cases is rising instead of falling, so it is necessary to return to restrictions. I think that in the coming months the data and indications of our index may still surprise us a lot - says Jerzy Wonka, InfoCredit's development director.

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